By Gaurav Arora
The April series Nifty futures is currently trading with a premium of around 240 points.
For the Index futures, FII Net Index Long exposure is at 35% which is more or less stagnant since the start of Mar series.
The Index is likely to consolidate in the range of 21,800-22,250 before any meaningful move. However, we believe, it may ultimately resume its uptrend.
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21,700-21,800 might be the immediate support and only a decisive close below it might bring in some downside.
VIX for the Nifty is currently at around 13 and likely to remain in the 11 to 16 levels implying a range of around 750 points in a month.
For the Nifty, the IVs for the options remained around 14 levels in yesterday’s trade.
For the Nifty, the VWAP (Volume weighted average price) is around 22,200-22,250 implying that to be the resistance. Above this, Nifty is to be positively biased for the short term towards 22,600-23,000.
The ratio between Bank Nifty and Nifty is currently at 2.12, this ratio has a support at 2.06 and resistance near 2.20. We expect Bank Nifty to trade in tandem with Nifty going forward.
Sector-wise, Realty and Chemicals look good in Nifty.
Nifty Calendar Spread:-
Sell Nifty 4 Apr 22,300 CE @ 117
Buy Nifty 4 Apr 22,300 CE @ 180
Spread @63, Stop Loss : 30, Target 105
(Gaurav Arora is a Derivatives Analyst with Religare Broking. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)